Vince’s View: NFL Week 4 Predictions and Game Notes; Titans at Colts, Washington at Dallas, 14 more games

Vince’s View: NFL Week 4 Predictions and Game Notes; Titans at Colts, Washington at Dallas, 14 more games

By Vince Ferrara / @VinceSports

Below is the game schedule with my Week 4 NFL game predictions. Winners straight-up are in bold. The line is my pick against the spread.

You’ll also see some tremendous notes on the games, teams and players provided by NFL Communications.

Listen to The NFL Report with John Wilkerson and two rotating Sports Animal hosts, including myself, every Sunday, 10am to 12:30pm ET on 99.1 The Sports Animal here in Knoxville and streaming here at 991TheSportsAnimal.com, the WNML app or on your smart speakers. We’ll break down all these games, review what’s happened, share injury news, fantasy advice and more. You can call or text the show at 865-656-9900.

2022 Week 3 Straight-Up: 7-9 (48%)
2022 Week 3 Against The Spread: 8-8 (50%)

2022 Season Straight-Up: 23-25 (48%)
2022 Season Against The Spread: 20-28 (42%)

2021 Season Straight-Up: 158-97 (62%)
2021 Season Against The Spread: 140-115 (55%)

WEEK 4 NFL SCHEDULE

(All times Eastern) Bold = Outright Winner ( ) = Pick With The Points

Thursday, September 29Miami at Cincinnati (-4)Prime Video8:15
Sunday, October 2Minnesota vs. New Orleans (London) (+4)NFLN9:30
(-1) Cleveland at AtlantaCBS1:00
Buffalo at Baltimore (+3.5)CBS1:00
Washington at Dallas (-3)FOX1:00
Seattle at Detroit (-3)FOX1:00
(-5.5) Los Angeles Chargers at HoustonCBS1:00
(+4) Tennessee at IndianapolisFOX1:00
Chicago at New York Giants (-3)FOX1:00
Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-6.5)CBS1:00
New York Jets at Pittsburgh (-3)CBS1:00
(+1) Arizona at CarolinaFOX4:05
New England at Green Bay (-9.5)CBS4:25
Denver at Las Vegas (-2.5)CBS4:25
(+1.5) Kansas City at Tampa BayNBC8:20
Monday, October 3Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco (-1.5)ESPN8:15

The NFL’s unpredictability is part of what makes it so exciting. And as the league enters Week 4, this much is certain: Much more thrilling uncertainty lies ahead.

This week, the MIAMI DOLPHINS can improve to 4-0 for the first time since 1995, when Pro Football Hall of Famers DON SHULA and DAN MARINO held the reins. The PHILADELPHIA EAGLES could advance to 4-0 for the first time since 2004, when they earned a Super Bowl berth.

What else could happen? Stay tuned because the NFL is as unpredictable as the bounce of an oblong football.

The Starting 11 entering Week 4…1.     ALLEN, JACKSON AMONG SUNDAY’S HEADLINERSLAMAR JACKSON leads the league with 10 touchdown passes and JOSH ALLEN ranks second with nine. They meet Sunday when BUFFALO (2-1) visits BALTIMORE (2-1) at M&T Bank Stadium (1:00 PM ET, CBS). … Those individuals also are the only two players in the NFL’s 103-year history to reach both nine touchdown passes and 100 rushing yards over the first three games of a season. Allen (No. 7 overall) and Jackson (No. 32) were each selected in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft and they’re two of just four quarterbacks in NFL history to record at least 20 rushing touchdowns and 90-or-more touchdown passes over their first 61 NFL games, joining DAUNTE CULPEPPER and DAK PRESCOTT. … This season, the Ravens lead the NFL with 33.0 points per game while the Bills’ defense has allowed the league’s fewest yards per game, 214.0.

2.     NUMBER OF THE WEEK – 100: The NFL this week marks a significant milestone: The league’s 100th game played outside the United States. MINNESOTA (2-1) and NEW ORLEANS (1-2) face off at London’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday (9:30 AM ET, NFL Network), the 41st regular-season international game in NFL annals. The league also has played 59 preseason international contests. Next week in London, the GREEN BAY PACKERS will become the 32nd NFL team to play a regular-season international game.

3.     NOTE THAT MATTERS: Eight teams that missed the 2021 playoffs have started 2-1 or better, including the CHICAGO BEARS (2-1) and NEW YORK GIANTS (2-1), who meet on Sunday at MetLife Stadium (1:00 PM ET, FOX). … For only the second time since the NFL added a 32nd franchise in 2002, 30 teams have at least one win through the first three weeks; it also happened in 2012 (30 of 32). Since the 1970 merger, the league has had just two winless teams through Week 3 on only five occasions (1988, 1989, 1990, 2012 and 2022).

4.     SPOTLIGHT – INDIVIDUAL MATCHUP: Four-time Pro Bowl guard QUENTON NELSON lines up across from fellow first-round draft choice JEFFERY SIMMONS on Sunday (1:00 PM ET, FOX) when INDIANAPOLIS (1-1-1). meets TENNESSEE (1-2). Nelson has proved crucial in helping JONATHAN TAYLOR lead the NFL with 2,097 rushing yards, nearly 500 more than the next-closest player, since the beginning of 2021. Meanwhile, over the same period, Simmons ranks fourth among NFL defensive tackles with 10.5 sacks and third with 1,036 snaps.

5.     SPOTLIGHT – TEAM MATCHUP: The JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-1) and their edge rushers, rookie No. 1 overall draft choice TRAVON WALKER and Pro Bowler JOSH ALLEN, visit PHILADELPHIA (3-0) and an explosive Eagles offense with tackles LANE JOHNSON and JORDAN MAILATA on Sunday (1:00 PM ET, CBS).

  • Through three games, Jacksonville’s defense is tied for the NFL lead in both takeaways (eight) and interceptions (six). The Jaguars had nine takeaways and seven interceptions all of last season. On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia’s offense leads the NFL with 447.0 yards per game.
  • This season, the Jaguars defense under coordinator MIKE CALDWELL has allowed the NFL’s fewest rushing yards per game, 55.0. The unit faces a Philadelphia offense that leads the league with 158.3 rushing yards per game since the beginning of 2021.
  • Jaguars head coach DOUG PEDERSON returns to the city he led to its first Super Bowl championship.

6.     STREAK SPEAK: Two young quarterbacks enter Week 4 looking to extend impressive streaks. First, on Thursday Night Football against the Dolphins (8:15 PM ET, Prime Video), JOE BURROW bids for his sixth in a row at home with at least 300 passing yards and two-or-more touchdown passes. Only DREW BREES (three times) and Pro Football Hall of Famers PEYTON MANNING and KURT WARNER have done that. … JUSTIN HERBERT is aiming for his seventh straight road game with at least 300 passing yards. On Sunday at Houston (1:00 PM ET, CBS), Herbert can join RICH GANNON as the only players ever with such a road streak.
 
7.     DID YOU KNOW?: Including the postseason, Kansas City’s PATRICK MAHOMES has engineered at least one touchdown drive in 75 of 77 career starts. The only two starts in which his opponent’s defense kept the Chiefs out of the end zone were Oct. 24, 2021, at Tennessee, and Super Bowl LV against Tampa Bay.
 
8.     UNDER-THE-RADAR STORYLINE: An offensive staff meeting room at Oklahoma’s Barry Switzer Center is a nursery for NFL quarterbacks. That’s where quarterbacks meet daily with Sooners coaches, and where three current NFL starting quarterbacks honed their technique. Entering this week, no other college has produced more NFL starters.

  • Two of those quarterbacks, KYLER MURRAY and BAKER MAYFIELD, reunite when ARIZONA (1-2) travels to CAROLINA (1-2) for a Sunday tilt (4:05 PM ET, FOX). In December 2015, Murray transferred to OU believing he would sit out the 2016 season while Mayfield played what was to be his final year for the Sooners. However, in summer 2016, the Big 12 voted to give Mayfield an additional year of eligibility. Murray had to wait two years to replace Mayfield, who won the 2017 Heisman Trophy and was selected No. 1 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. Then, Murray won the 2018 Heisman and went No. 1 overall in 2019.
  • JALEN HURTS, who like Murray and Mayfield also transferred to Oklahoma, replaced Murray as the Sooners’ starter in 2019. And while Hurts didn’t win the Heisman or go No. 1 overall, he enters this week among early season NFL MVP candidates, leading the NFC’s lone undefeated team. Hurts, who has 167 rushing yards and 916 passing yards, is the first player in NFL annals to average at least 50 rushing yards per game and 300-or-more passing yards per game over his team’s first three contests of a season.

 
9.     TREND TIME: The GREEN BAY PACKERS (2-1) host the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-2) on Sunday at Lambeau Field (4:25 PM ET, CBS). Green Bay is looking for its 15th consecutive regular-season home win. Since 2000, only three franchises (New England four times, Baltimore and the St. Louis Rams) have strung together home winning streaks that long.
 
10.  THIS WEEK IN NFL HISTORY: Sept. 30, 2007 (15 years ago) – The Giants match a single-game league record with 12 sacks, the most by an NFL team since 1985, en route to a 16-3 win over the Eagles. OSI UMENYIORA records six of New York’s sacks and forces two fumbles as the Giants take an important step toward an eventual Super Bowl victory over undefeated New England in Arizona.
 
11.  AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST: The LOS ANGELES RAMS (2-1) visit the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-2) on Monday Night Football (8:15 PM ET, ESPN). The teams have combined to represent the NFC in three of the last four Super Bowls. Late last season, the teams split a pair of significant games, the 49ers winning an overtime season finale at SoFi Stadium, 27-24, to clinch a playoff berth, and the Rams winning the NFC Championship Game, 20-17, to clinch a Super Bowl berth. … The Week 4 NFL slate features two other rematches from recent postseasons: A Super Bowl LV rematch, KANSAS CITY (2-1) vs. TAMPA BAY (2-1) on Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, NBC), and MINNESOTA (2-1) vs. NEW ORLEANS (1-2) in London, rekindling memories of the Minneapolis Miracle in the 2017 NFC Divisional playoffs.

ON ANOTHER LEVELLAMAR JACKSON and the BALTIMORE RAVENS (2-1), who possess the league’s top offense through the first three weeks (33.0 points per game), host JOSH ALLEN and the BUFFALO BILLS (2-1), who rank third at 30.3 points per game, on Sunday (1:00 PM ET, CBS).

Jackson leads the NFL with 12 combined passing and rushing touchdowns while Allen ranks second with 10. Each player has recorded at least four combined passing and rushing touchdowns in two games this season and can join RUSSELL WILSON (2020) as the only players in NFL history to accomplish the feat in three of their first four games of a season.

Jackson, who ranks fifth in the league in rushing yards (243), became the first player in NFL history with at least three touchdown passes and 100 rushing yards in consecutive games and can become the first quarterback to record at least 100 rushing yards in three consecutive games.

— NFL —

DEATH, TAXES, MAHOMES, KELCE: When the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2-1) face TAMPA BAY (2-1) on Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, NBC), PATRICK MAHOMES and TRAVIS KELCE can continue to climb through the record books.

Mahomes has 159 touchdown passes since entering the NFL in 2017 and with three touchdown passes, can surpass RUSSELL WILSON (161 touchdown passes) for the third-most touchdown passes by a player in his first six seasons in NFL history.

The players with the most touchdown passes in their first six seasons in NFL history:

PLAYERTEAMTD PASSES
Dan MarinoHOFMiami196
Peyton ManningHOFIndianapolis167
Russell WilsonSeattle161
Patrick MahomesKansas City159*
*In sixth season

Kelce, who leads Kansas City with 230 receiving yards and has at least 50 receiving yards in each game this season, needs 51 receiving yards to surpass ROB GRONKOWSKI (9,286 receiving yards) for the fifth-most receiving yards by a tight end all-time.

The tight ends with the most receiving yards in NFL history:

PLAYERTEAM(S)RECEIVING YARDS
Tony GonzalezHOFKansas City, Atlanta15,127
Jason WittenDallas, Las Vegas13,046
Antonio GatesSan Diego/L.A. Chargers11,841
Shannon SharpeHOFDenver, Baltimore10,060
Rob GronkowskiNew England, Tampa Bay9,286
Travis KelceKansas City9,236*
*Entering Week 4

— NFL —

HOME AND ROAD: Since the beginning of the 2021 season, Cincinnati quarterback JOE BURROW leads all players with 3,319 passing yards at home.

Burrow enters Week 4 with at least 300 passing yards and two touchdown passes in each of his past four consecutive home games and against Miami (3-0) on Thursday Night Football (8:15 PM ET, Prime Video), can join Pro Football Hall of Famers PEYTON MANNING and KURT WARNER as well as DREW BREES (three times) as the only players to accomplish the feat in five consecutive home games.

The players with the most consecutive home games with at least 300 passing yards and two touchdown passes in NFL history:

PLAYERTEAMCONSECUTIVE HOME GAMES
Drew BreesNew Orleans7 (12/16/12 – 11/10/13)
Kurt WarnerHOFSt. Louis Rams6 (12/19/99 – 10/15/00)
Drew BreesNew Orleans5 (12/21/15 – 10/16/16)
Peyton ManningHOFDenver5 (12/23/12 – 9/29/13)
Drew BreesNew Orleans5 (11/28/11 – 9/9/12)
   
Joe BurrowCincinnati4* (12/12/21 – 9/11/22)
*Active streak

Burrow, who has 8,111 passing yards in 29 career games, needs at least 85 passing yards to surpass MATTHEW STAFFORD (8,195 passing yards) for the fourth-most passing yards by a player in his first 30 career games in NFL history. With 340 passing yards, he will surpass Pro Football Hall of Famer KURT WARNER (8,450) for third-most.

The players with the most passing yards in their first 30 career games in NFL history:

PLAYERTEAMPASSING YARDS
Patrick MahomesKansas City9,238
Justin HerbertL.A. Chargers8,730
Kurt WarnerHOFSt. Louis Rams8,450
Matthew StaffordDetroit8,195
   
Joe BurrowCincinnati8,111*
*In 29 career games

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback JUSTIN HERBERT has recorded at least 300 passing yards in each of his past six road starts and when the Chargers (1-2) visit Houston (0-1-1) on Sunday (1:00 PM ET, CBS), he can join RICH GANNON (eight consecutive road games from 2001-02) as the only players ever to record at least 300 passing yards in seven-or-more consecutive road games.

The players with the most consecutive road games with at least 300 passing yards in NFL history:

PLAYERTEAMCONSECUTIVE GAMES
Rich GannonOakland Raiders8 (12/30/01-12/8/02)
Justin HerbertL.A. Chargers6 (11/7/21-9/15/22)*
Drew BreesNew Orleans6 (11/31/11 – 10/21/12)
Drew BreesNew Orleans6 (9/17/06 – 12/10/06)
*Active streak

— NFL —

GREEN STREAKS: The PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-0) are the last undefeated team remaining in the NFC and are one of two teams, along with Buffalo, to record at least 400 total yards of offense in each of their first three games.

On Sunday against Jacksonville (1:00 PM ET), the Eagles can become the seventh team since 1970 to begin a season 4-0 and record at least 400 total yards of offense in each game. Four of the six previous teams to accomplish the feat advanced to the Super Bowl that season.

The teams to win the most consecutive games and record at least 400 yards of offense in each win to begin a season since 1970:

TEAMSEASONCONSECUTIVE WINS WITH 400+ YARDS OF OFFENSE
New England#20078-0
Denver#20136-0
Arizona20214-0
Kansas City#20194-0
Oakland Raiders#20024-0
Dallas19764-0
   
Philadelphia20223-0
#Advanced to Super Bowl

GREEN BAY (2-1), who hosts New England (1-2) on Sunday (4:25 PM ET, CBS), has won 23 of their 25 home games since 2019 under head coach MATT LAFLEUR, including 14 consecutive home wins since Week 10 of the 2020 season. With a win in Week 4, the Packers can become the fourth franchise and sixth team overall to win at least 15 consecutive home games since 2000.

The teams with the most consecutive home wins since 2000:

TEAMCONSECUTIVE HOME WINS
New England20 (Week 16, 2008 – Week 6, 2011)
New England18 (Week 7, 2017 – Week 12, 2019)
New England18 (Week 17, 2002 – Week 1, 2005)
New England16 (Week 17, 2012 – Week 15, 2014)
Baltimore15 (Week 15, 2010 – Week 10, 2012)
St. Louis Rams15 (Week 6, 2002 – Week 1, 2004)
  
Green Bay14* (Week 10, 2020 – Week 2, 2022)
*Active streak

 — NFL —

FINE WINE: With two touchdown passes from each player, Green Bay quarterback AARON RODGERS and Denver quarterback RUSSELL WILSON can both reach historical milestones.

Rodgers, who has 453 career regular-season touchdown passes and 45 career postseason touchdown passes, can become the fifth player all-time with at least 500 career touchdown passes, including the postseason.

The players with the most touchdown passes, including the postseason, in NFL history:

PLAYERTEAM(S)TOUCHDOWN PASSES
Tom BradyNew England, Tampa Bay713
Drew BreesSan Diego Chargers, New Orleans608
Peyton ManningHOFIndianapolis, Denver579
Brett FavreHOFGreen Bay, N.Y. Jets, Minnesota552
Aaron RodgersGreen Bay498

Wilson, who faces Las Vegas on Sunday (4:25 PM ET, CBS) in his first start against a divisional opponent as a member of the Broncos, has 294 career touchdown passes and can surpass MATT RYAN (295 touchdown passes) for the third-most ever by a player in his first 11 career seasons.

The players with the most touchdown passes in their first 11 seasons in NFL history:

PLAYERTEAM(S)PASS TDs
Peyton ManningHOFIndianapolis333
Dan MarinoHOFMiami298
Matt RyanAtlanta295
Russell WilsonSeattle, Denver294*
*In 11th season

— NFL —

ONE CHANCE: In Week 3, Minnesota wide receiver ADAM THIELEN became the fourth undrafted player since 1967 with at least 50 career touchdown receptions. When Minnesota travels to London and plays New Orleans (9:30 AM ET, NFL Network), he can surpass WES WELKER (50 touchdown receptions) for the third-most by an undrafted player since 1967.

The undrafted players with the most touchdown receptions since 1967:

PLAYERTEAM(S)TOUCHDOWNS
Antonio GatesSan Diego/L.A. Chargers116
Rod SmithDenver68
Adam ThielenMinnesota50
Wes WelkerMiami, New England, Denver50


Jacksonville running back JAMES ROBINSON is the only player in the league to record at least one rushing touchdown in each of the first three weeks this season. With a rushing touchdown at Philadelphia on Sunday (1:00 PM ET, CBS), Robinson can become second undrafted player in the common-draft era to record a rushing touchdown in each of his team’s first four games of a season, joining MIKE AUGUSTYNIAK (New York Jets, 1982).

Kansas City, MO – November 1, 2021 – GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium: Patrick Mahomes (15) of the Kansas City Chiefs during a Monday Night Football game. (Photo by Joshua Gateley / ESPN Images)

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