NBA Finals Game 4: Preview, Props & Prediction

The Indiana Pacers enter Game 4 of the NBA Finals with a 2-1 series lead, an edge they have enjoyed in each of their four playoff series this postseason.
“That’s the challenge before us right now, is to maintain,” Indiana coach Rick Carlisle said. “It’s got to be a killer edge to beat these guys. We’re going to be an underdog in every game in this series. … It’s a daunting challenge.
“Anything less than a total grit mindset, we just don’t have a chance.”
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City finds itself down 2-1 for the second time, so the Thunder aren’t panicking entering Game 4 on the road Friday night.
“Being down 2-1 in a series, it can have emotions associated with it, but dragging those into the next experience isn’t going to help anybody,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said Thursday.
“Them being up 2-1, dragging that in isn’t going to help them, either. You have to compete when the ball goes up in the air. We’ve made a habit of that. We have to double down again on that tomorrow.”
ODDS & TRENDS
The Thunder are consensus 6.0-point favorites, and have been the favorite heading into every game of the NBA Finals so far.
The Pacers have been backed by 72 percent of the spread-line money at BetRivers, while the Thunder have drawn 87 percent of the moneyline action as +188 underdogs. The action has been similar at BetMGM, with Oklahoma City backed by 55 percent of the spread-line money while Indiana has been supported by 79 percent of the moneyline handle at +190.
BetRivers noted that each of the past seven NBA Finals Game 4s have gone under the total points line. So, it’s interesting to note that 84 percent of the money wagered on Friday’s total points line of 226.5 has backed the over.
The home team has also won the first half in each of Indiana’s past 11 games.
KEY STATS
–The Pacers have outscored the Thunder 67-43 in the fourth quarter in their two wins in the series.
–The Thunder lost back-to-back games just twice during the regular season and have yet to drop consecutive games in the playoffs.
PROP PICKS
–Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 24.5 Points (-590 at BetRivers): This has garnered the most money among Game 4 props at the book with 1.6 percent of the action. SGA broke a playoff string of four consecutive games with at least 34 by contributing “only” 24 on Wednesday. That is outside the norm, as he has topped 24 points in 15 of 19 postseason games. Despite the short odds required to get SGA at over 24.5 points, there is a very high likelihood he cruises past that mark with OKC in desperate need of a victory.
–Luguentz Dort under 13.5 points/rebounds/assists (-105 at BetMGM): The Oklahoma City guard interestingly has drawn the most total prop bets at the book. He had 12 points and four rebounds in Game 4, although Dort did not record an assist. For the series, he is averaging 10.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 0.7 assists per game for a combined average of 14.0.
KEY TO THE GAME
For the Thunder, getting back to their defensive identity is at the forefront after the Pacers shot 51.8 percent (44 of 85) from the field in Game 3.
“We’ve kind of strayed away from it a little bit,” forward Jalen Williams said. “I think when you’re scoring at a good rate, sometimes it can drop off a little bit. That’s something that we’ve looked at.
“There will be some game-plan adjustments, for sure,” he continued. “A lot of that is just competing. I don’t want to say ‘competing’ because that sounds like you’re out there not trying. Defensively locking in on a lot of the little things, not let them get comfortable and make those bigger runs late in the game.”
INJURY REPORT
Indiana’s Myles Turner continues to battle an illness, though he had a critical block and rebound late in Wednesday’s win.
Carlisle said Turner was with the team during their film session Thursday before heading home to recuperate.
“Hopefully, he’ll feel better tomorrow,” Carlisle said. “We’ll see.”
THEY SAID IT
–“We have to be who we are and who we’ve been all season. I think we got back to that in that series. If we want to give ourselves a chance in this series, it has to be the same thing.” — Gilgeous-Alexander, referencing Oklahoma City’s Game 4 win against Denver while trailing 2-1 in that series.
–“I think the biggest thing with right now is this is like a really exciting time. To play against these guys is an honor. It’s a lot of fun. This is a 68-win team, historically one of the best defenses ever. This is a really good team. They have the MVP. They have a bunch of dudes who are going to be in this league for a long time having a lot of success. … As competitors, you want to compete against the best and these guys are the best.” — Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton.
PREDICTION
The Thunder have won eight consecutive road games following a loss, and we expect them to run that streak to nine on Friday night. They’re still the series favorite for a reason, and Game 4 presents a critical opportunity to earn home-court advantage back. However, they’ll have to cope better with Indiana’s raucous home environment than they did in Game 3. — Pacers 115, Thunder 110